European views on ISIL

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European views on ISIL

Post by halfwise on Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:06 pm

I think the reason we haven't had a thread on ISIS/ISIL is because it seems like one of the few black and white issues around.  Yet in a survey done by a Russian magazine and a Gazan think tank (perhaps skewed but probably not ridiculously skewed), Europeans have a higher percentage of people with a favorable view of ISIS than Gaza!

http://www.vox.com/2014/8/26/6067123/isis-poll

It goes as high as 16% in France, I have to believe due to banning of islamic dress.  In france this feeling decreased with age, in the UK favorability increased with age..

What was even more alarming to me is that only slightly more than 60% of people claimed an unfavorable view of ISIS in France and the UK - in Gaza it was above 80%.

How can only slightly more than half have an unfavorable view of such a group?  Please enlighten me.

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by halfwise on Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:12 pm

What's really strange to me is the estimated Muslim population in France is only 10%, so there's a large amount of non-muslim support for ISIL. Rebellious youth?

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Mrs Figg on Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:22 pm

I find this unbelievable. How can anyone be in favour of murdering nutjobs on their borders? its like being in favour of hell and the apocalypse. How can they be in favour of genocide, baby beheading and mass rape? If this is real I give up.

humanity can go fuck itself.

My views on isil are pretty much based on reading Oriana Fallaci,

wiki
During her 1979 interview with Ayatollah Khomeini, she addressed him as a "tyrant" and managed to unveil herself from the chador:


OF- I still have to ask you a lot of things. About the "chador," for example, which I was obliged to wear to come and interview you, and which you impose on Iranian women. I am not only referring to the dress but to what it represents, I mean the apartheid Iranian women have been forced into after the revolution. They cannot study at the university with men, they cannot work with men, they cannot swim in the sea or in a swimming-pool with men. They have to do everything separately, wearing their "chador." By the way, how can you swim wearing a "chador"?
AK- None of this concerns you, our customs do not concern you. If you don't like the islamic dress you are not obliged to wear it, since it is for young women and respectable ladies.
OF- This is very kind of you, Imam, since you tell me that, I'm going to immediately rid myself of this stupid medieval rag. There !.
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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Amarië on Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:51 pm

Nazi Germany had a lot of followers too. People never learn.

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by halfwise on Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:52 pm

I'd definitely like to see follow up polls, and extended interviews with those who support this kind of rot, if they are willing to go on record.

I can understand why a minority of fervent Muslims supporting ISIL, though it seems the majority of Muslims are even more against them than non-muslims, and that's strongly to their credit. Don't want to be tarnished by it, I assume.

But for non-Muslims to go 'whatever' or even support ISIL mystifies me. I want to know why. Solidarity with oppressed muslim minorities?

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:16 pm

Halfy I think your last point might be something to do with it.

Do not underestimate the blame associated by many normal citizens to the US and to the ideals of capitalism.
The Iraq wars were fought without the consent of the majority in Europe. The governments who took part did so in the face of huge, sometimes even unprecedented opposition- in London more people marched on Parliament in protest than have ever done so in all of British history.
And most people saw the results of our meddling a disaster, and saw its motives were lies and its true intentions lay in greed, and in taking advantage of a tragedy and peoples lives to facilitate that excuse for their greed.
And then the economy collapsed in large part due to the US mortgage system, taking the Euro down with it and ushering a period of brutal unemployment and cuts in services across much of Europe.

When people look for who to blame for all this it is not IS they hold responsible.
When Israel kills over 2000 civilians who they have entrapped in the world largest open air prison, everyone knows who backs and funds the weaponry used in those killings.

There is a real danger here, that has been expressed by voters in a tendency to vote for parties that are to the right. The recent European elections should a noticeable lurch towards parties that were anti-EU, anti- immigration. Anti-muslim.

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Amarië on Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:18 pm

It would be interesting to see more detailed reasoning. What were they actually saying yes to? An Islamic state? World domination? Food to he poor? Cool killinz lyk on film? Were they ironic?

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by David H on Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:15 pm

halfwise wrote:
I can understand why a minority of fervent Muslims supporting ISIL, though it seems the majority of Muslims are even more against them than non-muslims, and that's strongly to their credit.  Don't want to be tarnished by it, I assume.

I think it's a lot more than that. Until the recent beheading, IS pretty much just targeted and killed Muslims with different practices, in the same way the medieval Catholic Church hunted and massacred whole towns for heresy. They're a huge threat to moderate Muslims in the Middle East, and to anybody who has family in that area.

We in the West often tend to fall into the trap of lumping everybody into two teams and cheering for one side or the other, but it's much more complex. I heard a good quote recently: "In the Middle East, you need to remember that the enemy of your Enemy is still your enemy."

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Mrs Figg on Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:15 pm

If it was up to me anyone demanding Sharia law (and there are a LOT) in the UK, should get a one way ticket back to Pakistan, should have their British passport taken off them in the airport and politely told they are no longer British citizens, even if they were born in the UK. I would put a stop to pc pandering, I would tell them if they go to Iraq to fight for isis they will be prosecuted and put in jail once they return.

Only Boris seems to be speaking up about this mess.
from the press
Writing in his Telegraph column, Mr Johnson said: "I suspect most of us don’t give a monkey’s what happens to this prat (Jihadi John)  in heaven, whether he meets virgins or raisins – we just want someone to come along with a bunker-buster and effect an introduction as fast as possible."

Amen to that. They are vermin. I think its just an excuse to go and act big men with guns, little to do with caring about the poor Palestininas, its more a case of a load of sociopaths banding together under the excuse of religion.
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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Amarië on Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:35 pm

Although tempting, I don't think it is a good idea to box them all together in one return-to-sender country. You have no hope of speaking to their offspring, or to reach those who are not insane but will get killed if they argue. Trolls live well in the shadows but doesn't survive when they have been dragged out in the light of day.

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:42 pm

Wise words Ambassador Nod

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by halfwise on Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:05 pm

Now ISIS has a young western woman in their clutches, who - based on their past history - they are quite capable of beheading.

Despite my normal attempts to try to see two sides of a story, with ISIS I kinda want to go thermo-nuclear. Only problem is it would wipe out a bunch of innocents under their thumb who are just trying to hunker down and survive.

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Mrs Figg on Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:19 pm

Amarië wrote:Although tempting, I don't think it is a good idea to box them all together in one return-to-sender country. You have no hope of speaking to their offspring, or to reach those who are not insane but will get killed if they argue. Trolls live well in the shadows but doesn't survive when they have been dragged out in the light of day.


I am going to say something controversial. Shocked

I think Islam and Western values are like oil and water, dont mix and disaster for our countries will be the result if we allow them to get a foothold. In many large towns and cities in England there are ghettos where communities dont speak English, dont mix with the English and retain their cultural values to the letter. I often wonder if these communities faced with a farfetched but hypothetical invasion by fundamentalist isis dingbats, just whose side they would be on. Would 'moderate muslims rebel or join isis? would those imams who are strangely silent when attrocities occur defend British values or fight for jihad? is there a serpent in our bed. When muslims marry western women its the kids who suffer after divorce, often getting whisked off to Pakistan or Turkey without the womans consent. Our values are not theirs, if they try to impose their values trouble will begin. No doubt I will be accused of being a rightwing reactionary, just UKIP fodder, a Daily Mail reading bar thumper. But I have read up on it, and some free thinking liberals are also waking up and smelling the coffee. It would be nice if we were all mocha coloured flower children skipping round a Rainbow, but when I look at my country I wonder if Enoch Powells river of blood wont happen soon.
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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by David H on Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:19 pm

The other BIG problem is that outside intervention only makes them stronger in the ideological war.

ISIS wouldn't even exist if we hadn't destroyed all the Iraqi social infrastructure and filled the void with hatred.  

That's the kind of conflict IS was born from and the environment they thrive in. They NEED us to attack them if they want to grow!

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Mrs Figg on Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:21 pm

halfwise wrote:Now ISIS has a young western woman in their clutches, who - based on their past history - they are quite capable of beheading.

Despite my normal attempts to try to see two sides of a story, with ISIS I kinda want to go thermo-nuclear.  Only problem is it would wipe out a bunch of innocents under their thumb who are just trying to hunker down and survive.

exactly my thoughts Nod
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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by halfwise on Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:52 pm

David H wrote:The other BIG problem is that outside intervention only makes them stronger in the ideological war.

ISIS wouldn't even exist if we hadn't destroyed all the Iraqi social infrastructure and filled the void with hatred.  

That's the kind of conflict IS was born from and the environment they thrive in. They NEED us to attack them if they want to grow!

It's very true that we've bungled, and bungled badly. I'm just afraid that we've created a monster that can only be tamed by total elimination followed by basically owning the region.

I had felt the time was right to leave Iraq, and knew there would be some crumbly chaos in the wake, but never expected this nightmare. The only alternative is arming the Kurds, the Iraqis, and lord knows who in Syria. We all know how this kind of thing has turned out in the past...may be better to just bite the bullet and go in ourselves (though I feel comfortable arming the Kurds for some reason).

I don't think we can just wash our hands of the whole mess; they won't let us.

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Eldorion on Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:13 pm

This thread is getting embarrassing.  Can we keep some perspective, people?

IS(IS) has succeeded by moving into regions of instability and chaos and exploiting pre-existing anger to form alliances.  They started out as a really minor outfit in Jordan in the late '90s but were unable to make any headway against Jordanian security forces, so they moved into Iraq after the invasion in 2003 and started trying to attach themselves to established actors, initially the Kurds, and then al-Qaeda.  They grew through mergers with our jihadi groups but the biggest portion of their strength was Sunni tribal forces.  However, the religious extremism of the group alienated their tribal allies, who were then receptive to David Petraeus when he offered to let them join the emerging mainstream political order in Iraq (and receive hundreds of millions of dollars for their cooperation).  This strategy, coupled with the US troop surge in 2007, was able to marginalize ISI (as it was then known) and decrease the violence in Iraq.  But then, Syria degenerated into civil war, so the group hopped across another border and acquired valuable experience, recruits, equipment, and financial support.  But they still wouldn't have been able to roll over large portions of Iraq if it hadn't been for Nouri al-Maliki alienating the Sunni tribes with his increasing sectarianism and authoritarianism.  But those tribes (many of whom have now switched sides at least twice) are still not Islamists and do not want Sharia imposed on them.

There's no question that IS is a danger to many people, and they have caused great death and suffering in their campaigns so far.  But the idea that they pose a significant military threat to the West is questionable, and the idea that they're going to invade is downright laughable.  The worst case scenario is a bombing or hijacking campaign of some sort, but it's actually really hard to pull these off.  The past decade and a half have shown that 9/11 was an exception, which succeeded largely by exploiting a psychological gap in that US military, intelligence, and civilian airlines were all trained to treat aircraft hijackings as hostage situations.  That gap has closed, and domestic and global intelligence agencies are very aggressive in their surveillance and investigation into terrorist plots (arguably to the point of entrapment in many cases).

I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around the idea that the recent successes of IS mean that the Middle East is unsalvageable and we should just block it off (either mentally or literally).  IS has enjoyed success in countries that were already well on their way to being failed states due to factors largely beyond IS' control.  The few times they have gone up against the militaries of stable states, such as Jordan (which they attempted to return to recently), they've had their asses handed to them.  IS has actually moved away from al-Qaeda style terrorist plots to a broader guerilla campaign, and while this makes it possible for them to hold territory, it also allows other countries to bring their conventional military power to bear (either directly or through proxies like the Kurds).
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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Amarië on Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:18 pm

A kickass 19 year old muslim woman initiated a protest against ISIS/IS/ISIL and their supporters in Norway in Oslo this Monday. About 5000 showed up and she held a flaming speech. Naturally, sadly. she was called all sorts of things and threatened, but she says is only makes her stronger and more convinced that she is doing the right thing. Awesome.

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Eldorion on Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:20 pm

That is indeed cool.

Fortunately this is not an isolated occurrence, either: http://muslimscondemningthings.tumblr.com/
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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Mrs Figg on Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:25 pm

Eldorion wrote:This thread is getting embarrassing.  Can we keep some perspective, people?

There's no question that IS is a danger to many people, and they have caused great death and suffering in their campaigns so far.  But the idea that they pose a significant military threat to the West is questionable, and the idea that they're going to invade is downright laughable.  The worst case scenario is a bombing or hijacking campaign of some sort, but it's actually really hard to pull these off.
.


sorry but thats pretty niave. Do you know how close Libya is to the coast of Italy? Once they take hold of a Libya in chaos whats to stop them attacking Europe? Whats to stop them infiltrating other North African countries in the Med? Worst case scenario may be bombing our cities from the comfort of Libya. Its not hard to pull of suicide bombings at all. and its certainly not laughable.
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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Eldorion on Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:28 pm

Mrs Figg wrote:sorry but thats pretty niave. Do you know how close Libya is to the coast of Italy? Once they take hold of a Libya in chaos whats to stop them attacking Europe? Whats to stop them infiltrating other North African countries in the Med? Worst case scenario may be bombing our cities from the comfort of Libya. Its not hard to pull of suicide bombings at all. and its certainly not laughable.

A string of suicide bombings is not an invasion by any stretch of the imagination.  And where would IS get a navy to carry out a cross-Mediterranean invasion?  Not to mention that even if they had one, NATO would still enjoy unqestioned air superiority, and when you're in a military convoy in the middle of the sea, your enemy doesn't have to worry about collateral damage.

But seriously, IS is nowhere near having the capabilities to carry out an operation of that scale, and there are so many obstacles they'd have to overcome to get there that we should be structuring our foreign policy around the threat they actually pose in the present and near future.  And yes, that does include the risk of suicide bombings in Western countries, but that's already something we're investing quite a bit of time and money into preventing, and we have gotten fairly good at preventing such attacks.

As for what would stop IS from operating in Libya: there are a whole different set of tribes (which are very powerful) there who they'd have to learn to work and build alliances with.  There is already a complex network of militias and armed groups who would not appreciate an outsider moving in, including a major al-Qaeda affiliate (IS and al-Qaeda have been fighting each other for over a year).  There is the logistical problem of moving resources and manpower from their base of operations in Syria and Iraq to Libya through Israel and/or Jordan and then through Egypt (all countries that are enemies of IS).  Libya is definitely a mess right now and it's possible that it's current government will succumb soon, but IS is not in a position to exploit that situation the way they were with Syria.
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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Mrs Figg on Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:39 pm

26 August 2014

Rotheram Abuse Scandal. 1,400 children abused for years because of political correctness run mad in the UK. Asian gangs not punished for fear of being seen as racist.

At least 1,400 children were subjected to appalling sexual exploitation in Rotherham between 1997 and 2013, a report has found.

Children as young as 11 were raped by multiple perpetrators, abducted, trafficked to other cities in England, beaten and intimidated, it said.
The report, commissioned by Rotherham Borough Council, revealed there had been three previous inquiries.
Several staff described their nervousness about identifying the ethnic origins of perpetrators for fear of being thought as racist”
The inquiry team noted fears among council staff of being labelled "racist" if they focused on victims' description of the majority of abusers as "Asian" men.
Professor Alexis Jay, who wrote the latest report, said there had been "blatant" collective failures by the council's leadership, senior managers had "underplayed" the scale of the problem and South Yorkshire Police had failed to prioritise the issue
Prof Jay said: "No-one knows the true scale of child sexual exploitation in Rotherham over the years. Our conservative estimate is that approximately 1,400 children were sexually exploited over the full inquiry period, from 1997 to 2013."

Revealing details of the inquiry's findings, Prof Jay said: "It is hard to describe the appalling nature of the abuse that child victims suffered."

The inquiry team found examples of "children who had been doused in petrol and threatened with being set alight, threatened with guns, made to witness brutally violent rapes and threatened they would be next if they told anyone".
Five men from the town were jailed for sexual offences against girls in 2010, but the report said police "regarded many child victims with contempt".

District Commander for Rotherham, Ch Supt Jason Harwin said: "Firstly I'd like to start by offering an unreserved apology to the victims of child sexual exploitation who did not receive the level of service they should be able to expect from their local police force.
The scale of this report is simply staggering and some of the detail extremely hard to read.
It lays out how Rotherham Council and the police knew about the level of child sexual exploitation in the town, but didn't do anything about it.
They either didn't believe what they were being told, played it down, or were too nervous to act. The failures, the report says, are blatant.

The report estimates 1,400 children were sexually exploited over 16 years, with one young person telling the report's author that gang rape was a usual part of growing up in Rotherham.
'Racism' fear
The report found: "Several staff described their nervousness about identifying the ethnic origins of perpetrators for fear of being thought as racist; others remembered clear direction from their managers not to do so."
Failures by those charged with protecting children happened despite three reports between 2002 and 2006 which both the council and police were aware of, and "which could not have been clearer in the description of the situation in Rotherham".
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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by David H on Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:42 pm

Also (in reply to nobody in particular) IS like many fundamentalist groups isn't really interested in going to war with the non-Muslim world. They just want to "purify" the Muslim world, which makes them much more of a treat to other Muslims than to any of us.

The only way we even come onto their radar is as Western culture creeps into the middle east, or as we openly get involved in regional conflicts as the US did recently.

The fact that ISIS thought a beheading was an appropriate way to say "please stay the f*** out of other people's fights" shows exactly how naive they are about such things.

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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Eldorion on Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:47 pm

David H wrote:The fact that ISIS thought a beheading was an appropriate way to say "please stay the f*** out of other people's fights" shows exactly how naive they are about such things.

Agreed. The rhetoric about attacking the West is mostly just propaganda, but even when they do carry out attacks, it's not a prelude to invasion. The core mission remains uniting and ruling the Muslim world, whether they want to be united and ruled or not.

Also (in reply to nobody in particular) IS like many fundamentalist groups isn't really interested in going to war with the non-Muslim world. They just want to "purify" the Muslim world, which makes them much more of a treat to other Muslims than to any of us.

I think there are a number of possible motivations they could have had:

1. Trying to pressure the US into negotiating and/or paying for hostages like most countries do.  Very unlikely to succeed if this is their goal.
2. Trying to convince ordinary Americans that intervening in the Middle East is a bad idea, causing them to pressure the government to stay out, akathe Tet Offensive strategy.  Slight possibility of success at this point due to war-weariness.
3. Trying to provoke a reaction so that they can rally even more local support against those evil foreign invaders (notwithstanding the fact that much of IS is foreign).  Best chance of success if that's what they were aiming for, but it could turn out to be more than they can handle depending on how the US plays its cards.


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Re: European views on ISIL

Post by Mrs Figg on Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:48 pm

Eldorion wrote:
Mrs Figg wrote:sorry but thats pretty niave. Do you know how close Libya is to the coast of Italy? Once they take hold of a Libya in chaos whats to stop them attacking Europe? Whats to stop them infiltrating other North African countries in the Med? Worst case scenario may be bombing our cities from the comfort of Libya. Its not hard to pull of suicide bombings at all. and its certainly not laughable.

A string of suicide bombings is not an invasion by any stretch of the imagination.  And where would IS get a navy to carry out a cross-Mediterranean invasion?  Not to mention that even if they had one, NATO would still enjoy unqestioned air superiority, and when you're in a military convoy in the middle of the sea, your enemy doesn't have to worry about collateral damage.

But seriously, IS is nowhere near having the capabilities to carry out an operation of that scale, and there are so many obstacles they'd have to overcome to get there that we should be structuring our foreign policy around the threat they actually pose in the present and near future.  And yes, that does include the risk of suicide bombings in Western countries, but that's already something we're investing quite a bit of time and money into preventing, and we have gotten fairly good at preventing such attacks.

As for what would stop IS from operating in Libya: there are a whole different set of tribes (which are very powerful) there who they'd have to learn to work and build alliances with.  There is already a complex network of militias and armed groups who would not appreciate an outsider moving in, including a major al-Qaeda affiliate (IS and al-Qaeda have been fighting each other for over a year).  There is the logistical problem of moving resources and manpower from their base of operations in Syria and Iraq to Libya through Israel and/or Jordan and then through Egypt (all countries that are enemies of IS).  Libya is definitely a mess right now and it's possible that it's current government will succumb soon, but IS is not in a position to exploit that situation the way they were with Syria.

Do you know how many immigrants are sailing over from Libya in the only last year, its probably 40,000 with the mare nostrum project alone, so rough estimate 100,000 per year, its easy to get across. The United Nations estimates that so far this year, 110,000 illegal immigrants have come into the EU via the Med. Frontex, the EU border agency, says that the number of illegal crossings detected on the “Central Mediterranean” route from North Africa to Italy rose by 288 per cent last year. Thats a lot of sleeper cells.
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Mrs Figg
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