US General Election 2016

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Eldorion on Wed Aug 05, 2015 4:27 am

Kasich's decision to wait to announce until right before the debate turned out to be very savvy. Not sure he's going to be able to stand out (seems like he's going for much the same audience as Bush, Walker, and Christie, but without nearly as much recent exposure), but timing his post-announcement bump this way punched his ticket to the debate.

I honestly keep forgetting that Graham is even running. It's possible that a candidate who missed the first debate will be able to take advantage of others' weakness and move up the rankings later on (there's going to be like a dozen GOP primary debates), but I don't think there are that many serious contenders. Trump is going to flame out, and Carson doesn't have the experience either. Huckabee, Perry, and Santorum are all known quantities who have been rejected before. Paul is too out there for most voters. Chris Christie's brand is too damaged at this point. So really that leaves Bush, Walker, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. I think it's going to come down to Bush or Walker. Someone else might win Iowa or another early primary/caucus, but those aren't really great predictors of who ultimately gets the nomination. The last two cycles Iowa was won by Mike Huckabee (2008) and Rick Santorum (2012).
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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by David H on Wed Aug 05, 2015 6:42 am

Eldorion wrote:  Trump is going to flame out,

Anybody want to guess when? This sounds like the perfect bet for a coffee-room pool :carrot:

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by bungobaggins on Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:06 pm

It would have been fun to see Perry go up against Trump. Sad

Glad Santorum isn't getting anywhere close to primetime coverage.

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by halfwise on Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:07 pm

You'll have to carefully define "flame out". is it when he's rejected from the republican ticket, or when, running as an independent, he doesn't win the election? Because I don't see him quitting.

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:09 pm

I am sure I herd somewhere that Trump is in favour of a universal health care system- is that not like a big no for the Republican base if so?

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by halfwise on Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:22 pm

Looked it up, indeed he is strongly in favor of universal healthcare! But you have to understand, all that matters is who or what party supports an idea. The intrinsic value of an idea is almost irrelevant in American politics.

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Eldorion on Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:14 am

halfwise wrote:You'll have to carefully define "flame out".  is it when he's rejected from the republican ticket, or when, running as an independent, he doesn't win the election?  Because I don't see him quitting.

I think he has a chance of riding high in polls all the way through January or February, but once the actual primaries start and the majority of voters (who are not wonks or in the ideological hardcore) begin paying attention and voting, he's gonna lose ground very quickly. If he runs as an independent he will have zero chance of winning, of course, but he could still be significant as a spoiler. Possibly. I don't think he'd go through with a third party campaign, but it'd be interesting to see if he'd get invited to the debates in that case.
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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by David H on Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:08 am

I'd define flame out as a large drop in poll numbers, say at least 10 points, over a period of no more than a week or two with no rebound following. Eldo, it sounds like you're thinking he can sustain his current levels without doing anything that will cause his fan base to desert him until the primaries. If that's the case, I don't know if the dilution alone would count as a flame-out rather than just a garden-variety loss.

I do think at this point Trump has shown himself to be a real threat as a spoiler/ protest vote if he were to go independent. I wonder what what the power brokers would be prepared to offer him to persuade him not to split the conservative vote. Maybe a cabinet position? That could be VERY entertaining! Very Happy

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Eldorion on Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:21 pm

Fair point, Dave. I think he's more likely to see support drop off before the firat primaries, but he's lasted longer than most of the 2012 "flavors of the month" so I don't want to underestimate him too much.
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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by bungobaggins on Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:23 pm

you can't stump the Trump.
he gonna dump some GOP rump.

Hill-dawg ain't got nothin'
can't beat this toupee
is it comin' or goin'
don't matter anyway

he's the man with the plan,
but don't ask him no questions
all that matters at campaign's end
is that you elect him

he's got the money
don't need no Koch brothers
Walker's riding Harley's
Jeb's tryin' to recover

Take the oil
build a wall.
Doesn't matter
if his statements appall

you. He just keep on
ravin and truckin
while Perry's at the
kid's table lookin

to jump through hoops
hopin we all forget oops

but he ain't got it
none of them do
just a flavor of the month
and a dirty ice cream scoop

but they'll sing hail to the chief
and put aside their beef
when the polls all bump
2016 - Trump

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by David H on Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:30 pm

:carrot: :carrot: :carrot:

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by bungobaggins on Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:04 pm

They're not streaming the debate online...you can only watch it if you're a cable subscriber. Well, there goes my evening.

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Eldorion on Thu Aug 06, 2015 5:41 pm

I love it, bungo! Very Happy

I don't normally watch primary debates but I have to tune in for this. Fortunately both my parents still have cable.
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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Forest Shepherd on Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:35 pm

When is this exercise in pointlessness occurring anyway?

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by bungobaggins on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:02 pm

Looky what I found...

http://www.hulkusc.com/watch-fox-news-live-streaming/

Oh, the little kid table debate, there's no one in the crowd! How sad!

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:22 pm

indeed he is strongly in favor of universal healthcare! - Halfy

Didn't think I'd dreamt it- but when no one seemed to bring it up in interviews was starting to wonder!


Cheers for the link Bungo! Watching now cheers

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by bungobaggins on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:22 pm

Perry just brought up Trump's support for single payer. Wonder if anyone will bring it up later at the big kid debate. Suspect

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:25 pm

When's the main bout? Or are they doing it like a boxing ticket with minor fights before the main fight?- Americans! Why does everything have to be a show?!Mad Mad

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by bungobaggins on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:27 pm

I think the main event is at 8 pm central, so in 3.5 hours.

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by bungobaggins on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:30 pm

These people are lucky that they're getting a debate at all. Seriously, 17 candidates in the GOP field (and Rush Limbaugh was calling the Democratic race a mess about a week ago! You've got to be kidding me!). Seventeen candidates! So we get the bottom seven now and the top ten later.

Even though these bottom seven candidates are getting a debate, the sad thing is that hardly anyone is going to watch this debate compared to the later one. Everyone just wants to see how Trump does. That's just how I look at it.

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:32 pm

Its what I'm tuning in for (that and I'm on a late shift tomorrow so can sleep late!)

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:37 pm

The questions in this debate seem very leading Suspect

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by bungobaggins on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:38 pm

Well, it is Fox News. Rolling Eyes

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:43 pm

Also its weird hearing Republican policies with a British ear- if that was the Tories saying exactly the same things in a UK debate people would call them extreme and far right!
I mean a 15% top rate of tax Shocked Might as well just let the rich print their own money. There is reason this sort of thinking is called 'trickle down economics' is because the rich bastards keep the money and what makes it down into the economy is a fucking trickle. Mad

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Re: US General Election 2016

Post by bungobaggins on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:48 pm

Yeah, this country has spread itself too thin. We can't take care of our own people because we've been too focused on military spending and having a dominant US military presence all over the world. I'm sure that if we look at how much is spent on domestic benefits vs. how much is spent on the military, the former would pale in comparison. Not to mention that we let these huge corporations get away with not paying taxes. We're down all that extra revenue, and then we're spending a majority of our money on military excursions. No wonder we can't take care of the people over here who really need it.

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