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Korea

Post by halfwise on Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:54 pm

May need it's own topic.

It's very likely only Trump could have produced a meeting, with his willingness to fly solo and complement dictators. The signed agreement was very vague and the devil is in the details, but at least it's a start. Time will tell. Both are very fickle leaders.

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Re: Korea

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:03 pm

{{ repost from us election thread- any mods about you can delete the one there please!

Good day for China- far as I can tell all Trump has got is pledge to denuclerise and verify (and we've heard that several times before) although I think he will get that this time because China want it and Trump seems to have already given China what it wants upfront and at no cost-

'The US would suspend "provocative" war games it holds with South Korea. Mr Trump said he wanted to see US troops withdraw from the South. Analysts have said this is a major concession'- BBC

I'll say it is- and even worse and odder this bit wasnt even in the agreement- Trump just offered it up for free at hi press conference afterwards!!

Also the US "would provide "security guarantees" to North Korea." Exactly who is supposed to be wringing concession out of who here?

And the denuclerisation bit of the deal is nothing more than vague promises with no timetable or means of verification laid out -" the document lacks substance, in particular on how denuclearisation would be achieved."

Trump can go home as China intended boastful, prideful, claiming to be the great deal maker and to have achieved what none of his predecessors could have done- China dont mind, letting Trump have all the credit is how you get him to agree to what you want- and when Trump is out of office -even if he gets two terms China will still be there, US troops will still be being removed from the region, the nuclear shield probably too and China will be free to step up its global desires and aims of local conquest an influence in the region without western interference. }}}

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Re: Korea

Post by halfwise on Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:15 pm

If we get inspections I'll start to believe. At the moment the only clear winner is North Korea, who got a degree of legitimization. Beyond nuclear inspections my main concern is opening up North Korea to mitigate famine. I was surprised there were no statements on embargos or trade. I'd think Trump would have been interested in that.

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Re: Korea

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:20 pm

{{{ According to the BBC Trump is saying for now the sanctions remain in place- but thats being undercut somewhat by China saying sanctions will be eased- and as they provide 90% of all trade with N Korea they are the mains ones who count. }}}

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Re: Korea

Post by David H on Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:06 pm

“Some things were agreed and not reflected in the agreement,” Trump said
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa/trump-optimistic-on-north-korea-summit-despite-differences-on-ending-nuclear-standoff-idUSKBN1J72PM
scratch

I don't think that word means the same thing to Trump as it does to me.... Suspect

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Re: Korea

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:58 pm

{{This was shown to journalist before the summit and Trump himself showed it to KIm. Just, the mind boggles.



and an interesting tweet from Nick Robinson the BBC's Political Editor-

'I’m watching the Trump/Kim show in Moscow. Is that the sound of laughter I can hear from the Kremlin as a US President calls it a “great honour” to meet a murderous, nuclear armed dictator days after accusing America’s allies of stabbing the US in the back ?'  }}

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Re: Korea

Post by halfwise on Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:12 pm

Tactical ego stroking. it may have worked.

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Re: Korea

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:29 pm

{{{ On N Korea maybe, on China I doubt it. (not convinced it will work n N Koren generals either, they know a bit about propaganda there!) And Trumps offer to give up join military exercises and bring troops back will setting off alarm bells in Japan and S Korea I'm sure }}

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Re: Korea

Post by Mrs Figg on Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:26 pm



this time he nailed it Laughing sorry Petty

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Re: Korea

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:29 pm

{{Heres the text they signed laying out the 4 areas of agreement from this summit (and my thoughts on them)

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

(Meaningless- we promise to try to make the sun shine and the sky always blue basically, purely aspirational)

2. The United States and DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

(same as 1)

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

(mmm if I was a lawyer I'd say the phrase 'commits to work toward' is a handy one for stretching out exactly how long to complete for as long as you want.)

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

(Fair enough, nothing wrong with this one, these sort of actions are often part and parcel of reconciliation between peoples and often useful- the only meaningful part of the agreement but in the grand scheme things not exactly the most important thing)  }}}

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Re: Korea

Post by bungobaggins on Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:17 pm

Wow! Everyone here is an expert at negotiating! Maybe you could go over there and do it for them!



I still don't like it, but I'm proud of the man I voted for doing his best to try a path for peace.

Probably my second favorite tweet from his presidency, so far: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/929511061954297857?lang=en

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Re: Korea

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:45 pm

I still don't like it, but I'm proud of the man I voted for doing his best to try a path for peace.- Bungo

{{I am not convinced he is doing for peace so much as for a legacy and the fame- were it to work the reason in the end is probably not important- but if it falls apart then it becomes more relevant.

Part of Trumps problem here just in regards to the actual deal is that so far what's been produced is wafer thin, has no details at all, and no substance and America is offering to give up a hell of a lot for it- Trump denounced the Iran deal as the worst deal ever but so far the deal on the table with N Korea makes the Iran deal look comprehensive and watertight in comparison.
Trumps doing this backwards- so he has had the legitimising a mass-murderer bit first and now they have to work out the details normally done before you ever get near a leaders meeting. So we got a meeting but ahead of any groundwork- so it consisted of nothing but vague assertions and hopes.
They say the devil is in the detail, in a sense thats not true here as there are no details! }}}}}

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Re: Korea

Post by halfwise on Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:27 pm

But you have to be fair: the old approaches never amounted to anything either.  I'm willing to wait this one out and see what happens.  I think it hinges more on how North and South Korea work things through.  If South Korea is willing to give up the security of joint exercises, North Korea may be willing to give up the security of nuclear weapons.  We'll see.

Bungo - read in the right light, that tweet is indeed a masterpiece.

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Re: Korea

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:36 pm

{{The reason previous Presidents weren't prepared to do what Trump has done is because they were not prepared to legitamize the N Korean regime before they had proved themselves worth it by de arming.

Now that didn't work- but in a sense that was ok strategically as it did have the benefit of legitimising the very large US military presence in the region acting as a counter balance to China.
I am no more a fan of China than I am N Korea and I think previous US presidents were perfectly aware of the risks of giving China more freedom in the area, and that legitimizing of N Korea would play into Chinese hands.
The strategy broadly speaking therefore was to starve them out and isolate them until internal uprising destabilised and overthrew the regime- then either you deal with the new emergent government or aid S Korea in stabilising and controlling the north, with the golden ideal outcome being a unified Korea under S Korean influence- either way the aim would be to maintain US presence and to ideally solve the N Korea problem without handing eveything on a plate to China.

I dont see what Trump is doing preventing China having everything handed on a plate to them, Trump is already conceding joint military exercises with the South and talks about troop reduction. N Korea remains firmly in the political grasp of China and its dictatorial regime of mass murderers is legitimised.

I still dont see a win end game here. }}

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Re: Korea

Post by Mrs Figg on Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:48 am

if it gets rid of nukes, its ok by me. don't care how they do it.

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Re: Korea

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:46 am

{{It was not about nukes Figg- not if by that sentiment you mean as a threat, as weapons. N Korea could barely launch test rocket without hem exploding- nukes arent for using, they are a ticket- they are how you get respect and a say at the Big Boys table- they are a door pass. And Trump just endorsed and laid out a tyrants path to legitimisy by showing that if you illegally develop nukes, threaten your neighbours or superpowers with them, then no matter how vile or crazy your regime might be they will have to talk to you as an equal and you get rewarded in the end. N Korea didn't want nukes to blow  anyone up with- they wanted them firstly as a deterrent to the US or S Korea invading by conventional forces, and secondly as a bargaining chip to use in gaining legitimisy internationally. Worryingly it seems to be working!}}}

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Re: Korea

Post by chris63 on Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:21 am


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Re: Korea

Post by halfwise on Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:46 pm

Laughing

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Re: Korea

Post by Amarië on Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:56 pm


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Re: Korea

Post by bungobaggins on Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:59 pm

Pettytyrant101 wrote:I still don't like it, but I'm proud of the man I voted for doing his best to try a path for peace.- Bungo

{{I am not convinced he is doing for peace so much as for a legacy and the fame

Oh, Petty, there's just no pleasing your side. You do make me laugh. Laughing This was an initial meeting right? Do we expect everything to be worked out right away? I mean, I don't. Sure, Trump goes out there and says it "will be done quickly" but if you haven't been paying attention for the last 2.5 years then you don't understand that's just something Trump would say. Peace, if it happens won't be overnight, nor within the next year, but this was an important first step to take for the process.

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Re: Korea

Post by bungobaggins on Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:00 pm

halfwise wrote:
Bungo - read in the right light, that tweet is indeed a masterpiece.

I busted out laughing the first time I read it, while the other half of the world was convinced it would lead to WWIII. Rolling Eyes

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Re: Korea

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:47 pm

{{{ Bungo if this somehow works out I will be happy about it- gobsmacked admittedly but happy- peace is good, though not at any price. And despite what you might think I dont disapprove of everything he says or does- though I do object to him as a human being, he is not a pleasant one- in fact was watching a CNN report that was largely trying to mock the fact he had said during the press conference afterwards the bit about the beaches in the background to the video shots of N Korea testing shit- and how he told Kim those would be great for some condos and beach front property instead.
In that regard I think Trump in his naiveness says what many folk think - whats it all for, not be better to have a nice tourist resort there, live in peace and have an economy? That sort of naivety normally counts for nothing- but its not normally wielded by technically the most powerful man in the world- and there is a fascination in seeing it applied in these sort of situations.
And Kim may well dream of a N Korea tourist country accepted in the world- problem is to get there is people will have to become freer- and soon as that happens they will stinging him up from the nearest lamppost for his crimes against them. }}}

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Re: Korea

Post by halfwise on Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:35 am

Trump is shaking things up and we can only hope something good will come from it.  The danger is that Trump is making friends out of who should be our enemies, and royally pissing off our long term friends.

To paraphrase Dana Milibank - "I'm proud to have a president who finally has the guts to stand up to....Canada."

https://www.stltoday.com/opinion/columnists/national/dana-milbank-finally-a-president-with-the-guts-to-stand/article_ef9b70c5-bffb-5a16-81eb-f7472342c6d1.html

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