US General Election 2016

Page 9 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by halfwise on Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:51 pm

Complete cave! cheers

I thought Pelosi was overplaying, but she's a better poker player than I realized, and won flat out. End of shutdown, and democrats have the upper hand. Let's see if they actually negotiate now rather than just play games of chicken.

_________________
Halfwise, son of Halfwit. Brother of Nitwit, son of Halfwit. Half brother of Figwit.
Then it gets complicated...
halfwise
halfwise
Quintessence of Burrahobbitry

Posts : 14918
Join date : 2012-02-01
Location : rustic broom closet in farthing of Manhattan

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:56 pm

{{Smartest thing the Dems can do now is negotiate- meet Trump in the middle, agree to some extra 'border protection' call it slats, fencing whatever, bung some drones in there so everyone saves face and only agree to it in return for some movement on DACA and more border centres and staff to speed up processing with better facilities for immigrants held there while they are processed, and they will look like a party ready to govern in a compassionate but effective manner, not just an opposition to Trump party. }}

_________________
Pure Publications, The Tower of Lore and the Former Admin's Office are Reasonably Proud to Present-



A Green And Pleasant Land

Compiled and annotated by Eldorion.


- get your copy here for a limited period- free*

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yjYiz8nuL3LqJ-yP9crpDKu_BH-1LwJU/view



*Pure Publications reserves the right to track your usage of this publication, snoop on your home address, go through your bins and sell personal information on to the highest bidder.
Warning may contain Wholesome Tales
Pettytyrant101
Pettytyrant101
Crabbitmeister

Posts : 41176
Join date : 2011-02-14
Age : 47
Location : Scotshobbitland

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by halfwise on Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:23 pm

I agree, and am very worried the Democrats will hold to their silly "not one penny for the wall" statement.

I see now they were right to refuse to talk until the shutdown was over: Trump won't try that again. But the package he offered was actually reasonable. They can tweak it, but shouldn't reject it out of hand.

_________________
Halfwise, son of Halfwit. Brother of Nitwit, son of Halfwit. Half brother of Figwit.
Then it gets complicated...
halfwise
halfwise
Quintessence of Burrahobbitry

Posts : 14918
Join date : 2012-02-01
Location : rustic broom closet in farthing of Manhattan

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by halfwise on Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:59 pm

I realized this morning that Trump will almost certainly win the next election.  

Not on his perceived merits by those who voted for him last time, but by the split decisions offered by his opposition: moderates versus what can only be called socialists.  I see this as a nearly 50-50 split, and if Starbucks founder Schultz enters as the moderate independent candidate, there can be no majority against Trump.  Even if he doesn't enter, whichever faction wins out on the democratic side will engender protest voting and a likely loss.

The only hope is if Trump doesn't get enough to win a majority of the electoral college, and the vote devolves to the House of Representatives which will vote by state following Electoral college rule. In this case the only hope is if the House remains in democratic control by state. This is a bit iffy: the parties tend to clump within each state, and the electoral college voting allocation (which favors small states by population) favors the Republicans, which gets many rural voters and it what put Trump in office even as he lost the popular vote.

I don’t know if it would be the present House or the newly elected House. I don’t have the time to work out which way the current House would fall under electoral college voting, but harbor doubts.

_________________
Halfwise, son of Halfwit. Brother of Nitwit, son of Halfwit. Half brother of Figwit.
Then it gets complicated...
halfwise
halfwise
Quintessence of Burrahobbitry

Posts : 14918
Join date : 2012-02-01
Location : rustic broom closet in farthing of Manhattan

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Lorient Avandi on Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:56 pm

halfwise wrote:I realized this morning that Trump will almost certainly win the next election.  

I agree that the biggest thing going for Trump is similar to the biggest thing going for both of Obama's elections, the opposition can't make up their mind on what they want. However unlikely it may be as well, if any Republican decides to run, depending on their support it could get real interesting.

_________________
I was a baby when I learned to suck, but you have raised it to an art-form
Lorient Avandi
Lorient Avandi
Wizard of Magicland

Posts : 765
Join date : 2011-08-08
Age : 22
Location : Utah, USA

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by halfwise on Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:00 pm

There will be no opposition candidate from within the party: the Republicans rolled over and showed their bellies to Trump long ago. There may be a protest candidate or two that will sputter and fizzle out, and Trump will have the nomination clear as day.

With no Democratic figure who can bridge the split, it's game over. Maybe a Bernie Sanders figure who attracted some of the disgruntled lower class who eventually fell to Trump may do it, but the entrenched Democratic machine won't let that happen.

_________________
Halfwise, son of Halfwit. Brother of Nitwit, son of Halfwit. Half brother of Figwit.
Then it gets complicated...
halfwise
halfwise
Quintessence of Burrahobbitry

Posts : 14918
Join date : 2012-02-01
Location : rustic broom closet in farthing of Manhattan

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Lorient Avandi on Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:52 pm

You're probably right, though rumor has it Romney is considering another go at it (likely one of the biggest reasons he went for the Utah Senatorship) and he HATES Trump, so I wouldn't put it past him.

As far as Democrats though, that Beto O'Rourke seems to be getting some traction among a lot of different classes of Dems

_________________
I was a baby when I learned to suck, but you have raised it to an art-form
Lorient Avandi
Lorient Avandi
Wizard of Magicland

Posts : 765
Join date : 2011-08-08
Age : 22
Location : Utah, USA

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by halfwise on Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:07 pm

All of us (including my many accounts, Trump) were wrong about the last election, so we'll have to see. I don't feel Beto has the national presence to make a real run.

_________________
Halfwise, son of Halfwit. Brother of Nitwit, son of Halfwit. Half brother of Figwit.
Then it gets complicated...
halfwise
halfwise
Quintessence of Burrahobbitry

Posts : 14918
Join date : 2012-02-01
Location : rustic broom closet in farthing of Manhattan

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by David H on Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:57 am

halfwise wrote: and the electoral college voting allocation (which favors small states by population) favors the Republicans, which gets many rural voters and it what put Trump in office even as he lost the popular vote.

Not so fast Halfy. My rural farming and fishing corner of the world put quite a bit of faith in Trump to fix things in 2016. But since all the farm bill stuff and the recent shutdown I've been hearing phrases like "not very impressed" from people who used to have Trump signs out by the road. Still no love for Hillary, but that doesn't seem to translate automatically into support for Donald like it used to. From what I'm seeing, I think there's definitely room in the primaries for a Republican challenger with a better handle on rural values than a rich New York real estate mogul/ playboy could be expected to have...

_________________
 
David H
David H
Horsemaster, Fighting Bears in the Pacific Northwest

Posts : 6847
Join date : 2011-11-18

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by halfwise on Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:07 pm

We can hope.

_________________
Halfwise, son of Halfwit. Brother of Nitwit, son of Halfwit. Half brother of Figwit.
Then it gets complicated...
halfwise
halfwise
Quintessence of Burrahobbitry

Posts : 14918
Join date : 2012-02-01
Location : rustic broom closet in farthing of Manhattan

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Bluebottle on Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:35 am

Eldy wrote:Bungo did not exactly make a secret of the fact that he was struggling with depression. I don't recall him ever saying so explicitly (though I may be forgetting something), but it was pretty clear to see that he had his personal demons. That's not a complaint or judgment; I wouldn't want people to think they have to hide their feelings on here. Unfortunately, a lot of relationships were frayed by the time he made his final few returns to the forum last fall. The last thing I ever said to him was not said in a terribly conciliatory manner, but as I noted at the time, he seemed to be miserable every time he departed the forum and there didn't seem to be a clear path to return to more amicable relations short of people just never disagreeing with him about politics. Clearly, though, he had a ton going on beyond the context of discussions on here, and I have done a lot of ruminating today over the posts Forest refers to and others.

I didn't take bungo's final comments about killing himself in response to Petty criticizing Trump seriously; like Petty says, I considered it hyperbole. I don't know now (and never will) how seriously those comments were meant in the moment, though as per bungo's brother's account that exchange was more than a month before the end of his life. It seems undeniable, though, that they were--at the very least--an expression of something weighing on him. Questioning what could or should have been done differently is a common reaction in cases like this, and while I don't know what different actions I might have taken (I never knew bungo's real name and had no way of contacting anyone he knew IRL even if I'd been concerned for his immediate safety), it will always be an open question whether saying something different might have made an impact. That's ultimately a two-way street, though. I hope he had people he felt able to talk to IRL, but regardless, I have no criticism or judgment of people who don't want to talk or ask for help about their mental health struggles, whether that's in general or only in certain circumstances.

Of the 17 core members of Forumshire who have made the most posts on the new forum, bungo is the second who is no longer with us. The first was Ally, who most likely died in the same fashion back in 2013. In her case, the not knowing for sure was--and in some ways still is--the hardest part. While I've been pretty shaken up today after getting this news (in part because it comes a day after similar news from another quarter), I am very grateful to bungo's brother for letting us know. There are many other people who haven't posted here in a long time, but none who gave any red flags that I can recall. Most of them drifted away gradually and I know some are still active elsewhere online (GB, for example, continues to flourish as a fanfic writer). Tin's activity here broke off very abruptly and I was worried about her for some time, but she'd shared her real name and enjoyed a fairly successful career in DIII college golf, which left an online footprint of its own. I don't know why she stopped posting, but it was reassuring to know it wasn't because she'd died.

I'm not a good person to try to say anything about bungo on a personal level. I'm not going to try to overwrite some of the stuff that happened in recent years, but I considered him a friend for a long time and I'll try to focus more on the happier memories. He dabbled in Photoshop and a couple of the images he shared (the Beorn-as-a-metalhead concert poster and the Christmas card with people's avatars) have been saved in the "Forumshire" folder of my hard drive since ... shit, in the former case, two laptops ago. Most of his creative energy was directed toward music and therefore went over my head, but he shared several stories in the Creative Corner and was very gracious in his response when I asked for permission to include them in the fanfic collection last year. He seemed to feel very strongly about the Hobbit movies, as he did everything, which produced some memorable crabbit rants. In retrospect, it's hard not to wonder if the feeling too strongly was bad for him (he'd be far from alone in that), and I think it contributed to the some of the tension over politics. But that's bungo all over, and his net contributions to the forum over his five years with us are very much in the positive.

This post might not belong here--I swear I didn't intend for it to be this long when I started typing out a response to Forest--but as this thread was, for better or worse, bungo's main hangout towards the end of his time with us, perhaps it's fitting. I hope he is at peace now. I don't know if he would have wanted me to say this, but he will, as a key part of Forumshire for much of its existence, always have a special place in my memories: the good, the bad, all of it. I don't know what exactly he was like IRL, how different he might have been, or what his relationships with other people were there. It is not my place nor my wish to infringe on any of that. But he left a mark here, more than most people do when they join an Internet forum, and I have to believe that counts for something.

Hard news. Death is a terrible toll, especially in close relations, I hope his family is dealing with it as well as they can. I remember me and Bungo having some political argument way back that everyone seemed to take very seriously apart from me, to me it was simply another discussion, as I did not treat any of it as personal to any degree. Perhaps it is good to note that others might take it differently. If Bungo was here, I think I'd give him a copy of Jaron Laier's 10 reasons to quit social media right now. To understand how the social media ecosystem functions, what it does to us, and that perhaps the best you can do is to step away, I think it needs to be basic learning for anyone growing up in the times we live. One of Lanier's chapters, each giving name to a reason to quit social media RIGHT NOW, is called Social media makes you an ashole. It somehow seem very pertinent to the way internet debates seem to go down. (Lanier notes he used to have this experience about himself in online forums on rare instruments way back when..) Adéu i bona sort.

_________________
“We're doomed,” he says, casually. “There's no question about that. But it's OK to be doomed because then you can just enjoy your life."
Bluebottle
Bluebottle
Concerned citizen

Posts : 9931
Join date : 2013-11-09
Age : 32

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by Pettytyrant101 on Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:23 am

{{ I've noticed in the past week Fox news have been going after the idea of a single payer health care system in an attempt to shoot it down.
Their four main arguments appear to be- it will cost to much and bankrupt the country-it is impossible to implement-it will 'take' your health insurance plan away - it doesn't work in countries that have it.

So one at a time then- it costs too much. Americans pay more per head of population currently for their health care than anyone in a country with a form of single payer does. Health care is more expensive  in the US than in other similar modern nations. And then when you do get ill you'll probably get charged again for stuff your insurance doesn't cover and if you need medicine you will be paying some of the highest prescription costs in the western world.
Given single payer in other countries works out cheaper for everyone at every stage its difficult to see why America would be the only country to ever have a single payer system that cost more.

It is impossible to implement. The why of this seems rather nebulous. And I can see no reason why it should be the case, not like there are not plenty of models and examples of varies forms of free at point of need health care systems around the world to choose from.

It will take your health insurance away- yes it will, that's the point, you won't need it. No more insurance bills, no more medical bills, ever. And if your worried about having to pay a fortune in tax instead don't be, remember people in countries with single payer are paying less than you already in tax and health costs, not more. However much your employer currently takes from you to give to an insurance company is almost certainly more than what you will pay in extra tax for single payer.

It doesn't work in countries that have it- Fox tends to highlight where there are issues with single-payer, particularly in the UK and in Canada- they cite waiting times, 'death panels' (still don't know what those are, they seem to have made the mup!) and other calamities. But  if you were say to judge the entirety of the US medical profession on the basis of malpractice lawsuits it would probably not look great either.
Its not a very full picture, particularly as Fox of course make no differentiation between England and Scotland who have separate health services. In England satisfaction levels with the NHS sits between 68-70%  but in England there has been some quasi-privatization of the NHS which most agree has seen a poorer service. In Scotland where this has not happened, and which is arguably therefore a better comparison in terms of being a purer single payer system, satisfaction is in the 80% and over 60% say they would be happy to pay more in tax for NHS funding.
And even in England where there is larger dissatisfaction with their service there are no calls to get rid of the NHS, or replace it with private sector, rather the opposite when people complain its to say they want more funding, more services, more staff paid for through taxation. There is and since it was introduced has never been any public appetite for anything other than support of the NHS.
In terms of outcomes single payer in general globally either equals or outperforms the US health system.

I cannot speak to the Canadian health service, but nor do I ever recall hearing of any mass movement in Canada to get rid of theirs. And perhaps if you are hesitant still that's the major factor to consider- in countries who have a form of single payer the people never want to get rid of it, and any party standing on a platform to do so will guarantee a loss. To the point even right of centre parties will support it.
This I think is the great fear of the Republican party and all their insurance company friends- that once Americans have single payer they will guard it as jealously as every other country that has it does. And they will never get rid of it.

And in this internet age, when Americans, especially young Americans talk with people all over the world on a daily basis, the old lies about single payer from the American right will not stick forever when personal testimony from around the globe is telling them otherwise. }}

_________________
Pure Publications, The Tower of Lore and the Former Admin's Office are Reasonably Proud to Present-



A Green And Pleasant Land

Compiled and annotated by Eldorion.


- get your copy here for a limited period- free*

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yjYiz8nuL3LqJ-yP9crpDKu_BH-1LwJU/view



*Pure Publications reserves the right to track your usage of this publication, snoop on your home address, go through your bins and sell personal information on to the highest bidder.
Warning may contain Wholesome Tales
Pettytyrant101
Pettytyrant101
Crabbitmeister

Posts : 41176
Join date : 2011-02-14
Age : 47
Location : Scotshobbitland

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by malickfan on Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:07 pm

My father was watching Trump giving a speech announcing his plan to declare a national emergency for the wall funding...we lasted about a minute before I insist he change the channel, I was already getting a headache watching that malicious senile idiot rambling on, feel sorry for the staff who have to put up with him for entire weeks on end.


_________________
The Thorin: An Unexpected Rewrite December 2012 (I was on the money apparently)
The Tauriel: Desolation of Canon December 2013 (Accurate again!)
The Sod-it! : Battling my Indifference December 2014 (You know what they say, third time's the charm)

Well, that was worth the wait wasn't it  Suspect


I think what comes out of a pig's rear end is more akin to what Peejers has given us-Azriel 20/9/2014
malickfan
malickfan
Adventurer

Posts : 4459
Join date : 2013-09-10
Age : 27
Location : The (Hamp)shire, England

Back to top Go down

Re: US General Election 2016

Post by azriel on Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:23 pm

he is completely different from Obama. Trump to my ears sounds like hes acting in a bad comedy family film. I cant take him seriously. Barack Obama had a more "human" voice that was at least easy to listen to. Trump reminds me he must be a left over Oompa Loompa that's still sulking OR, one of the Munchkins all grown up but thinks the Wizard of Oz was only good because of him

_________________
"All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. It's the job that's never started as takes longest to finish.”
"There are far, far, better things ahead than any we can leave behind"
If you always do what you have always done, you will always get what you always got



azriel
azriel
Grumpy cat, rub my tummy, hear me purr

Posts : 14227
Join date : 2012-10-07
Age : 59
Location : in a galaxy, far,far away, deep in my own imagination.

Back to top Go down

Page 9 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum