UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:15 pm

{{ It will force a by-election in his constituency at some point (if a general election doesn't happen first)and the good citizens of that constituency will either re-elect him but as a lib dem, or vote for whoever the Tories put up to oppose him.

As for the government they can limp on long as they can hang on. Under normal circumstances if a government lost its majority the opposition would call a vote of no confidence- as the government dont have a majority to defeat it. But under current circumstances everything normal is out the window- its all about Brexit. }}

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Post by halfwise on Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:16 pm

Since the present government's approach to Brexit is to basically do nothing, a no-confidence vote has nothing to derail.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:58 pm

{{ A no-confidence vote means a change of government (assuming a new one can be formed and approved by the House within 14 days, if not automatic general election).

The Speaker has approved the emergency motion- the debate letting the opposition take control of House business is under way- this is step 1- and the easiest and its expected to succeed. But not guaranteed.
Expect the vote about 8pm
If they win it then tomorrow they will move to table a bill forcing the government to seek an extension in the event the government come back from the EU meeting in Oct without a deal.
Alternatively, before they do that Boris may try to find a way to force a general election.
If they lose tonight's vote then any chance to stop Boris is over bar Corbyn calling a no confidence vote.}}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:59 pm

{{ Debate ongoing- vote expected in a couple hours more than likely.

However, know I said the only options left for Boris were increasingly insane?

Well rumour mill hinting the government are trying to lay groundwork if a bill is passed to argue its unconstitutional.
For a bill to become law it requires at the very last stage Royal Assent. Boris might try to get the Queen to refuse to give the bill her consent preventing it becoming law.
Which hasn't happened since 1707. }}

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Post by halfwise on Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:32 pm

pff...this is piddly-squeak detail stuff. The Queen would never break precedent for something that has so little symbolic resonance.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:51 pm

{{ Thats just it Hafy, in an attempt to thwart each other both sides are pushing and stretching what is possible within the phase space of parliamentary possibilities, and that seems to mean any possibility by making use of Parliamentary devices from its long history which are being scoured to weaponise in the fight. And no one is any longer very sure it seems which thing being proposed is now too far and which are not. We are already so far the lines are all blurred between possible and ridiculous. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:53 pm

{{ Talking of weaponising procedures, this is just in on the BBC- }}

'Boris Johnson loyalists in the lords helping out the PM. Am told 90 amendments have been tabled to an opposition business motion for tomorrow which is designed to find time to debate the anti no deal bill... one supporter of the PM says that they hope to have two votes on each of the 90 amendments, which they hope will "take up 90 hours".

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Post by halfwise on Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:25 pm

Rolling Eyes

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:55 pm

{{Voting is underway}}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:13 pm

The motion to take control of the House of Commons agenda has been passed by MPs.

Ayes - 328

Nos - 301

Majority - 27


{{ So step one accomplished. Now to see how far they get with stage 2 or if Boris will have something up his sleeve between now and tomorrow to scupper it! }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:20 pm

{{ And Boris has not been slow in his response-

"The leader of the opposition has been begging for an election for two years," says the PM.
"I don't want an election but if MPs vote tomorrow to compel another pointless delay to Brexit then that would be the only way to resolve this."
He confirms that his party will be tabling a motion for a general election.- BBC

So back to the polls it seems, unless Labour refuse to vote for one. }}

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Post by Mrs Figg on Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:20 pm

I think Labour will refuse a general election, as it plays into Johnson's hands.

Love to watch Johnson telling Churchill's grandson Nicolas Soames and the Father of the House Ken Clarke, that he is removing the Whip and forcing them both out of the Conservative party. That's how mad for power Johnson has become.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:49 pm

Love to watch Johnson telling Churchill's grandson Nicolas Soames and the Father of the House Ken Clarke, that he is removing the Whip and forcing them both out of the Conservative party.= Mrs Figg

{Gobsmackingly that has actually just happened Figg, along with others like Rory Stewart who just a short while a go was seen as a rising Tory star in the leadership race, and Philip Hammond who only 1 month ago was Chancellor of the Exchequer- all expelled from the party! Its incredible. Clarkes been a Conservative MP since 1970.
In this one day Boris has gone from 311 MP's and a majority of 1 and ended up on 289 Mp's.}}

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Post by Mrs Figg on Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:38 am

I keep thinking things couldn't get more absurd, disgusting and totally barking mad, and then it does. Shocked

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Post by David H on Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:55 am

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{{ ...., or you are Dave and live on a farm and have to fight the sea and use a tin can for internet connection... }}
I'm still out here, and I've been following your reports with all the shock and horror and horror they deserve ( Shocked affraid Sofa ) but I've been mostly having to borrow the neighbor's tin can, so I'm rarely logged in and can't reply
{{even if I could find the words for this debacle Suspect }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:30 am

{{ Just checking you were about Dave (I always find it wise to do that when passing your fields, for safety's sake! pale Anyone would think you didn't appreciate all the extra fertiliser Mad ).

If anyone has access to the bbc parliament channel at noon (GMT) then its Boris first PMQ's today- which should be, fiery I'd imagine.
If you dont have try here- usual caveats apply to external sites- take an adblocker and a have virus protection just in case- I use it fairly regularly to watch live US news.

http://www.livenewsmag.com/bbc-news-uk-live-stream/ }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:38 am

{{ The Scottish Court of Session has reached its ruling, I mentioned it among the flurry of activity yesterday they were considering a case brought against Boris that shutting down Parliament was illegal.

The Court has found-

'that the issue was for politicians and voters to judge, and not the courts.
He also said there had been no contravention of the law by the government.'

Not quite the end of it as those who brought the action are appealing the ruling- but I don't see much hope of any success there. Nor do I believe any English Court would overturn it. }}

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Post by Nagual on Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:33 am

An article in The Times suggests that if there was a snap General Election, the SNP stand to do very well. Which given the very interesting political times is a fact that won't be wasted on the 'powers that be'.

Original article:
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Post by Mrs Figg on Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:37 pm

Labour will not vote for an election before no deal can be legally scuppered, therefore they will have 3 months to either have a 2nd referendum, negotiate another deal, or have a general election once its safe to do so. Johnson wont allow a 2nd ref, the only deal is May's deal so the only way out is an election but there is the danger the Tories will do a deal with Farage because they are that desperate for power. Labour needs a new leader but that wont happen so the danger is a Tory/Kipper pact, and could things get any more horrendous than that.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:11 pm

{{ Vote tonight on the bill to prevent no deal in Commons. Then it gets fast tracked to the lords.
Important to remember Parliament doesn't sit on a Friday, as thats when MP's return to theior constituencies to deal with local affairs, so the bill has to pass by close of business in the Lords tomorrow or its dead.
Reports that members of the lords are bringing food and sleeping bags with them.

In order to prevent this the opposition in the Lords are trying to pass legislation there which would limit the time to prevent this.

And on a added note to last nights going son, whilst the House was debating the bill to take control of business- this is how Mogg was responding during it. Makes you want to punch that arrogant entitled face till your arms fall off!! Twisted Evil }}


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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:40 pm

{{ The vote is on the committee stage- its got 3 readings to get through tonight its passed 2 so far, the last by a margin of 25.
Two more Tories voted against the government tonight- presumably they are gone from the party too now, but who knows.
But barring Parliament being blown up it should pass now where its off to the Lords, who it looks like are going to sit all weekend if they have to in order to pass it before Monday! }}

'I’m proud to be playing a small part in the Lords’ marathon effort to stop no-deal, which will force Johnson to try to reach a deal (which he can’t). Just had our first two votes of potentially 200. This could run round the clock into the weekend.' - Lord Strasburger, Lib-Dems

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:46 pm

{{ One of those Tory rebels was Dame Caroline Spelman, former Party Chairman! Even more interestingly she did not rebel last night, but she changed her mind and did today.
Boris is also at the regular meeting of the 1922 club, where Tory MP's are apparently not happy at all at the expulsions.

Soames speech in Parliament today after being kicked out the Party. }}


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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:53 pm

{{ Well the bill to stop no deal passed the House and is now of to the Lords.
And as Figg rightly predicted labour refused to vote for the subsequent call for a general election, defeating that move from Boris.

So its all up to the Lords now who are in for a very late night indeed! }}

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Post by halfwise on Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:16 pm

Soames: "....members of cabinet whose serial disloyalty has been such an inspiration for so many of us."

Laughing

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:03 pm

{{ Big blow to Boris, and a personal one today, his own brother just resigned saying he cant reconcile family loyalty with national interest.
Your own brother saying he cant trust what you're doing is a bit of a blow!

So to recap, Boris has lost something like 27mp's by sacking them for rebellion, he has lost control of business in the House, and the bill in the Lords, due to passed tomorrow will force him in the event of not getting a deal to delay article 50 till January of next year. And he has been thwarted in his attempts to get a general election so far.

On paper this is all bad for Boris. But is it really?

What stopped May getting a deal? She had a majority in the Commons of 1, she had all the DUP added to that plus the Labour rebels. But she still lost every time. How?

It wasn't the House that defeated her. Or the opposition parties. It was her own side.
She never got Mogg and the ERG onside who opposed her deal as being too soft, and she could never get the remain wing on side because they were opposed to the whole idea and were never going to be happy with anything.
The combination of having remainers on her own side and leavers on her own side vote against her meant her majority was meaningless, and even with Labour and DUP votes not enough to make up the lossess from her own benches.

Now lets take a look at Boris's position. He has no majority, for now. But he also has no rebels left to vote against him in his own party, and he has the ERG onside.

Now Corbyn says no election until the no deal bill gets royal assent- which could be as early as tomorrow- and all indications are Boris wants this by tomorrow- the Lords filibuster was cancelled overnight with the Tory whip in the Lords declaring a deal had been struck with opposition peers to ensure passage of the bill by close of business.
So why would Boris want a bill tying his hands on no deal to pass without delay or trouble when there was a very good chance his side in the Lords could have simply filibustered it to death?

Because then he gets his general election. And that's the final big gamble here that is a winner takes all hand.

In a general election, if Boris stands by his leave or die trying stance, he will get the backing of the Brexit party, and coordinate who is standing where to maximise potential wins.
The remain vote however is almost certainly going to be severely split across Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Green, Cymru making it all the more likely the Tories will not only win but increase their majority.

And that increase if it happens will be replacing all those cast out remain rebels with Boris loyalists.

If Boris gets his election and wins it then even a majority of 1 this time will be enough I think- the DUP will still vote for it, any Brexit party members that win will vote for it, and with no remain rebels and the ERG already onside in his own party no one is left there to vote against it either.

He will be back in power as PM, with a majority and the two wings of rebellion in his party which scuppered May's deal at every turn either purged or onside.

Boris may well be losing battles all round now, but he's still playing and still gambling all, and he might yet win the war. }}

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Pettytyrant101
Pettytyrant101
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