UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

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Post by halfwise on Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:10 pm

A remain vote split across parties would still be a defeat. Are you saying the various parties will never come together to form a new government so the Tories could stay in power?

I thought filibuster was a purely American term. Have to search up the origins of it.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:26 pm

{{Problem is the Remain parties have no coherent plan- they know what they stand against but are widely different on what they stand for- as is clear from how often Labour members voted for the government. Even within remain parties there are huge divisions on what to do- Corbyn himself is no fan of the EU and has had to be dragged by his party to the position of promising a another referendum and to have a remain option on the ballot.
The Lib Dems don't want to work with Labour- that's why Swinson their leader scuppered the no confidence plan that would have put Corbyn in charge. The Lib Dems were dead in the water after their coalition with the Tories and Cameron, their revival has been entirely on the back of positioning themselves as the Remain party and hoovering up disfranchised Labour remain voters not happy with Corbyn's reluctant stance on being pro-EU and his fence sitting.
The last things the lib-dems want is for Labour to reclaim the remain ground.
The SNP will work with Corbyn, but only on the basis he grants them a 2nd independence referendum, and that requires Corbyn sickling to his word on that.

The last issue is the UK system is not designed for coalition government but for a clear winner- as it tended to be in the past. The few coalitions we have had were pretty disastrous, and usually made up of only 2 parties- the idea of several opposition parties forming any sort of coherent government seems very unlikely. Or if they did that it would last very long. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:30 pm

1580s, flibutor "pirate," especially, in history, "West Indian buccaneer of the 17th century" (mainly French, Dutch, and English adventurers), probably ultimately from Dutch vrijbueter (now vrijbuiter) "freebooter," a word which was used of pirates in the West Indies in Spanish (filibustero) and French (flibustier, earlier fribustier) forms. See freebooter.

According to Century Dictionary, the spread of the word is owing to a Dutch work ("De Americaensche Zee-Roovers," 1678) "written by a bucaneer named John Oexmelin, otherwise Exquemelin or Esquemeling, and translated into French and Spanish, and subsequently into English (1684)." Spanish inserted the -i- in the first syllable; French is responsible for the -s-, inserted but not originally pronounced, "a common fact in 17th century F[rench], after the analogy of words in which an original s was retained in spelling, though it had become silent in pronunciation" [Century Dictionary].

In American English, from 1851 in reference to lawless military adventurers from the U.S. who tried to overthrow Central American governments. The major expeditions were those of Narciso Lopez of New Orleans against Cuba (1850-51) and by William Walker of California against the Mexican state of Sonora (1853-54) and against Nicaragua (1855-58)

The noun in the legislative sense is not in Bartlett (1859) and seems not to have been in use in U.S. legislative writing before 1865 (filibustering in this sense is from 1861). Probably the extension in sense is because obstructionist legislators "pirated" debate or overthrew the usual order of authority. Originally of the senator who led it; the maneuver itself so called by 1893. Not technically restricted to U.S. Senate, but that's where the strategy works best. - Online etymology dictionary

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:32 pm

{{{ It comes up less in association with UK politics Halfy because it's against the rules in the Commons, you can't filibuster. But you can in the Lords. }}

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Post by Mrs Figg on Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:06 pm

wow even Johnson's brother doesn't trust him.

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Post by halfwise on Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:38 pm

We've got the same rules about filibuster over here, but I think it's used more because the Senate has more legislative power than the House of Lords. Also, it wasn't used much until the second half of the last century, when party lines became hardened.

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Post by halfwise on Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:39 pm

Mrs Figg wrote:wow even Johnson's brother doesn't trust him.

Yep that tells you something.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:28 pm

{{ It might not be all its seems. Were he not Boris's brother the only eye brows being raised would be over what took him so long.
He was part of the remain wing of the Tory part with Ken Clarke. He only stayed this long because Boris was his brother.
Had Boris not been he would almost certainly have gone before now.
In a way its more about political divide than brotherly divide. And had any other remain MP done the same it would not be at this point that newsworthy, as its happened to over 21 of them so far. Its not so much him saying he doesn't trust or believe his brother, so much as he doesn't agree with what he has done to the Conservative Party or the direction politically he is moving in to achieve his aims. Its a political difference and not anew one either its always been there on this matter since Boris choose to back Leave in the referendum.}}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:37 pm

{{ Also worth remembering that all that's happening right now, all of it, and if the Lords get the bill passed and its Royally approved to stop Boris, all of this is utterly meaningless if there is a general election and Boris wins with any sort of majority at all. With all loyalists behind him he can simply repeal the law, set a new leave date or stick to the Jan one he's been forced to adopt (which he probably will as gives more preparation time) and then he is clear to do whatever sort of Brexit he wishes.

I suspect any election will not produce a clear outright winner, depending on which parties agree to work with which. A Hung Parliament is likely and a coalition of some sort likely too.
All the opposition parties are unlikely to join together as they can't agree on any of it. Labour could call on SNP MP's to boost their numbers and really on the others to vote with them on Brexit matters, so even if Boris forms a govt with a tiny majority they could still out vote him together.
But Boris is likely to stay joined to the DUP and to add some Brexit MP's to the mix as well Labour MP's in leave areas opposed to a 2nd referendum. But he will almost certainly lose seats in Scotland won by Ruth Davidson.
So any election is going to be very tight and will be followed by a lot of scrambling about in back room talks between parties trying to strike deals. If that happens it could, as happened before, lead to weeks of wrangling before a clear government emerges.}}

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Post by Mrs Figg on Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:20 pm

lets hope Gina Millers lawsuit wins, should be results by tomorrow.

https://www.ft.com/content/8b2baa3e-cfcd-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

She should get a medal for all the work she has done for democracy.

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Post by halfwise on Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:49 pm

Paywall.

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Post by Eldy on Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:16 pm

Unfortunately I don't have anything insightful to add myself, but I just want to say thank you for all of your commentary and updates in here, Petty. It's been really interesting to read alongside general coverage of this mess, and is much appreciated. study
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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:22 pm

{{ Cheers Eldy, glad to help through this quagmire.

In recent Brexit new's the bill to stop no deal passed the Lords and will be law.
So now Boris has to come back from the EU meeting in October with a Deal or he has to extend article 50. He cant leave without a deal without breaking the law.

In order to prevent this he has contiued to try to taunt and provoke, calling Labour everything from a big girls blouse to running scared of the electorate. So far opposition parties have stuck together however and refused to take the bait and are ruling out a general election until after the october meeting, ensuring no deal is avoided on the 32st oct and the extension granted first, as no one trusts Boris not to agree to an election on the 15th then move it later till after we leave.

Boris is now claiming he will deal at that meeting, and some news has finally come out about some actual negotations, if you can call them that. The UKs opening position is to strip the backstop of almost all its provsions and so it deals with only a few things, the rest moving freely until a better solutiuon can be dreamt up.
Needlesless to say the EU has not responded positively to the idea of gutting the backstop of its meaning and purpose. }}

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Post by Mrs Figg on Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:27 pm

looks like he will need to dig that ditch or resign. Laughing This is fantastic news for the moment. Johnson will try to twist and turn and fudge it and probably try to run down the clock unless he is kicked out in a GE. I am hoping they call for one after October 31st...and all this because he was arrogant, bullying and untrustworthy.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:24 pm

{{ Long term Figg I am not sure it makes any difference.
Boris will try to stay on as PM until an election.
Assuming thats after Oct 31st and the EU grant another delay to Article 50, then that means the leave date is just moved to Jan 2020.
If we have an election in Nov as now predicted I think Boris will still be Tory leader for it.
The country is still as closely divided over this as the parties are. And the result of an election is likely to be much the same as now, with even the possibility Corbyn turns enough neutral voters off to give Boris a majority.
And he only needs 1. With the DUP likely to get about same he will add up to 10 more to that from them, and no one in his own party is left who will vote against him.
If he gets a majority then come Jan he can do what he wants and simply push it through, he will have a majority to prevent any simialr votes to prevent no deal, or to force a delay, as he would always have the majority to hold control of the House and to push through legislation.

This is not over yet. Just delayed. Again. }}

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Post by Mrs Figg on Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:17 pm

But at least no deal would be illegal.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:10 am

{{{ Only till potentially November.

If Boris were to win an election, and with any sort of majority, he can simply repeal the law and there's no way to stop him so long as he has the votes for it.
It will all come down to the end result of the election, if it ever happens.

And even if Boris decides to resign come oct 31st if he is forced to get an extension, then who replaces him? It has to come from the Tory benches, and they have been purged of remainers or non-Boris supporters. So we'd get a Gove, or  a Mogg.

And I see no indications that Conservative party members, who would decide a new leader are any less keen on brexit and even on no deal than they were when they elected Boris.
So if Boris does go in all likelihood he will not be followed by a moderate but someone even further right- a true believer. There are few other choices left in the party.

The only sure fire way to stop no deal is for another party to beat the Tories at the election and to strike a deal with the EU the House can agree to vote on.
All this will depend entirely on how the election results fall and who can make deals with who to form a government.

But I fear if its the Tories Brexit is a certainty and no deal is a strong possibility again and certainly back on the table.
If its Corbyn we will have a repeat of Mays time- a withdrawal bill going round and round unable to get a majority behind it in the House (or, just like May in his own party). }}

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Post by halfwise on Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:04 am

Now that you've pointed it out, we're seeing the same thing here. Unfortunately the young democrats are responding by moving further to the left instead of taking ground vacated in the center. We've got a long ways to go before we are through all this.

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Post by Mrs Figg on Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:26 pm

wowzer there is talk of arresting Johnson if he refuses to obey the law, and he has said that he would refuse to obey the law. It has also been said that if he did refuse to obey that the civil service would refuse to do his bidding and that "he would be alone, with Cummings". Presumably in a prison cell.

slap laugh flipping heck What a Face

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Post by Nagual on Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:10 pm

I'd I miss this being mentioned? Boris is now in hot water for referring to David Cameron as a "girly swot" which was recorded in Cabinet papers, and can be seen in a partially redacted document according to Sky News.

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Post by Mrs Figg on Sat Sep 07, 2019 11:16 pm

oooh now Amber Rudd has resigned after sticking it to Johnson for being unprincipled. Laughing

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Post by halfwise on Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:28 am

Wow, the shit is flying even faster than it did for the Trump administration. Shocked

(Sorry I keep referring to it, but it's my only point of comparison)

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:37 am

{{ in many way Rudd was an outlier, she was a remainer in Boris cabinet who agreed to go for his do or die stance.
But now says she cant hack the die bit when its seeming the more likely of the two outcomes.
Better late than never I suppose. It's kind of surprising she has still been there all this time.

So whilst another remainer going is not perhaps surprising, the timing could not be worse for Boris, it is giving the impression, probably because its true, that the Tories are splitting into two distinct groups and that the moderate/remain leaning wing is looking to try to retake his position and bring down Boris at any cost.
Ironically the very hardline tactics Boris choose to gamble on to purge his party of non-believers in the Brexit cause, which has been successful, may well have caused an equally hardline response from those he has smitten.
For Boris the worst thing that can happen now is his own party tear him to shreds before he can get to his general election, the tory membership, leave voters and brexit party followers will vote for him- hence his increasing desperation for one.

But even if the moderate wing succeed they still need a new leader, and its unlikely that the Conservative membership, whose votes will decide it, will reward them for scuppering their choosen man last time by putting a soft Brexit remainer in his place.

Tricky days ahead for the Tories. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:41 am

Sorry I keep referring to it- Halfy

{{Not at all Halfy- there are some interesting parallels to draw.

I mentioned one in passing above- that the new leader if they get rid of Boris will still be who the membership vote for.

They just voted overwhelmingly for Boris. Polling shows they are still staunchly in his corner, and back no deal if it has to be that way.

The people who are looking to oust Boris and take back the middle ground however have the completely opposite view.
They are no longer representative of the thinking of the poeple following their party.
Years of playing on fears of immigrants, creating class divisions and poverty shaming for political gain has come back to bite them- now their supporters are far more to the right on this than the moderates in the middle ground of the Tory party is.
But know who is on their ground? Boris.

Which is very reminiscent to me of what has happened to the Republican Party. The Senators who are the moderates have either been purged or bullied into silence - but not just because Trump is bullying them but because its apparent to them that they are not representing the sort of republican party the replublican supporters want, which is much more to their right on a host of issues. And like the Tories its years of them drumming fear of the immigrant and throwing the poor to the wolves for political gain thats come back to bite them. Their suporters like the Tory ones are not on the same ground as the moderate thinking any more.
But know who is on their ground? Trump.

It's all weirdly similar.
Like Labour being taken over by its once fringe far left, and then the new left leaderhip being attacked for anti-semitism.
And then you have the Democrats, with its own current takeover attempt by its once far left fringe, and they too have come under accusations of anti-semitism.

Our politics often seem to mirror each other. Suspect }}

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Pettytyrant101
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UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain) - Page 29 Empty Re: UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

Post by halfwise on Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:54 pm

My Chinese ex somewhat girlfriend years ago thought America would be some sort of haven. Then Trump got elected. She was upset until she surveyed the world a year later and saw they nearly every place had fallen to nationalists. Now she thinks any given country is as bad as any other, which was oddly comforting.

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halfwise
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