UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

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Post by malickfan on Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:50 pm

Well, Corbyn is probably holed up drafting his resignation speech right now...

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Post by malickfan on Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:57 pm

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ Malick cheers pub

Yeah exit polls spell doom! SNP will have done a lot better than I expected if this is true- rumours Swinson willl lose her seat to them too.   Nod

But this is the end of Corbyn if true surely? Expect Labour to descend into factions and infighting for a good while leaving no proper opposition to hold Boris to account. Making it even worse. Mad }}

pub

wonder if the unionist vote will go towards to labour or tories in scotland? If northern england can go to the tories can they claim more marginals in scotland do you think?

(Though it seems to me that the Tory voters in 2017 in scotland were more pro-union rather than pro-brexit? cant see that changing much?)

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I think what comes out of a pig's rear end is more akin to what Peejers has given us-Azriel 20/9/2014
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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:03 am

{{ Its hard to be sure as everything here is marginal. Even Curtice for the BBC says the shakiest part of the exit poll is the SNP numbers- I'm not surprised my jaw hit the ground when I saw the prediciton - 55 seats out of 59 would be mindboggling as a result and would mean a collapse of the Unionist and Leave vote. I am therefore taking it with a huge pinch of salt, beforehand I had the SNP breaking 40 as an outstanding result- 55 is beyond belief right now.

As to which had more support, leave or the union- current polling has the Union issue at 49% for 51% against- or polling wise too close to call. In the EU referendum 62% voted Remain. So there is more support for remain here than for the union. And I supsect that Union number might have moved a little in favour of independence since the last polling on it if tonights result is true}}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:08 am

'A crucial caveat for north of the border though.
There is lots of excitement at the projection of 55 seats for the SNP.
But we don't have that many sampling points in Scotland and there are lots of marginal seats.
As in 2017, the SNP figure for Scotland is the bit that we are, frankly least, confident about.'- Sir John Curtice BBC

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Post by malickfan on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:15 am

Interesting to note that of the seats called so far, the conservatives may have won a couple more from labour if the Brexit party hadn't split the vote...

I think the exit poll will be broadly right, but perhaps more of the seats will be more marginal than first thought...

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:20 am

{{ Brexit party seem to be doing better than I thought they would, I figured theyd get squeezed out and they had a terrible campaign. But they are having an effect, and in tighter seats that might be a big issue. Though as its first past post its unlikely to translate into many seats but they seem to effecting the results. }}

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Post by Mrs Figg on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:21 am

malickfan wrote:Well, Corbyn is probably holed up drafting his resignation speech right now...



Wave hiya Malick, nice to see you and glad you are doing good. Thumbs Up

At least we will get rid of Corbyn at long last. he is a nice guy but flipping heck he was useless.

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Post by Mrs Figg on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:22 am

Long was this Doom Foretold

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:28 am

Long was this Doom Foretold- Figg

{{ Yeah by us! All the  way back when Boris first became PM. This is Plan B in fulll action and seemingly, like the rest of Boris's gambles so far, paying off for him handsomely. Much as I am hating the prospect of Tory rule again, and under Boris, given where he started from and the state of Mays Tories when he took over he has played an extrodinary political hand of cards to get here. Certainly the most audacious and calculated bit of political chess Ive seen in a very long time, if not ever. }}

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Post by Mrs Figg on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:37 am

historic loss for Labour, this surely is the end of Corbynism and a return to moderate Labour? its going to take years for them to recover, maybe 5 years to find a new path, maybe by the end of Johnson's first term when the wheels have come off that labour can make a comeback, but its going to be tough work if Momentum still has power. At the moment they are finished.

I still don't get how this has happened, how people fell for Johnsons crap. its mind-boggling.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:53 am

{{ Its Corbyn and Momentum and Unite and Labours increasingly Londoncentric mindset which has done it.
What amazes me is that Labour learned nothing from the collapse of their traditional seats in Sctoland. Many of the same issues which led to that- Labour being in safe seats for decades taking voters for granted whilst neglecting to actually take care of their constituents in order to focus on the south of England, and increasingly falling out of touch with the working class voters that put them there as those Londoncentirc issues took dominance in the party.
Its same thing in north of England and Midlands now, traditional Labour heartlands who Corbyn's Labour in no way reflects the views or concerns of.
When you combine that with the farleft manifesto crafted by Unions, which as I noted before England as never in my life time voted for anything that far left ever, Corbyn's disastrous interviews, lack of grasping his own policies, the threat of nationalising so many industries, and his fence sitting on the biggest issues of the day- 'I'll be neutral' is not the rallying cry of a leader- you get this result. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:31 am

{{ Shadow Cabinet minister gone, first of Corbyns cabinet,lost to the Tories.
And first win for SNP in Scotland. But a change of only up 7%, less than the exit polls predict if they are to get over 50 seats (which I still think is unlikely). }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:59 am

{{ SNP took Angus from Tories. Swing to SNP of 11% Labour got their first win, taking a seat from the Tories in remain leaning Putney.}}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:04 am

'Another Scottish independence referendum would damage Scotland and the United Kingdom even if Scots have overwhelmingly voted for the nationalists that favor such a poll, British minister Michael Gove said on Thursday.'- New York Times

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:45 am

{{ Jo Swinson Lib Dem leader just lost her seat to SNP }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:27 am

{{ Results (1 still to declare but wont change anything).

Conservative 364
Labour 203
SNP 48
Lib Dem 11
DUP 8
Sinn Fein 7
Plaid Cymru 4
Social Democratic & Labour Party 2

Worth noting that not only did the Unionist parties all suffer a wipe out in Scotland, sein fein and Social democrats are both Irish nationalist parties meaning for the first time ever there is also a pronationalist lead over unionists in Northen Ireland. And like Scotland NI strongly voted to Remain in the EU. There is an obvious now mile wide gulf between England/Wales and the rest of the UK.

Expect the coming two years to be spent on Brexit and the fight for the Union. }}

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Post by halfwise on Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:58 am

That's a strong conservative majority.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:24 pm

{{ Yeah sadly considerably larger than I predicted, the SNP score is higher than I expected too.

Labours collapse was utter however. They got 1 seat in Scotland- which given less than 20 years ago Scotland was a labour heartland filled with safe Labour seats its astonishingly bad for them. But with Scotland gone they were entirely relying on their english heartlands in the north of england and the midlands- and they collapsed too. Once it became clear that was happenning it was over and was only a matter of how big would the Tory win be not if they'd get one.

The lib-dems are an odd one- their position on just nullifying the EU vote result cost them dear in leave areas but it did help them in remain areas, in Scotland for example they won one lost one, granted the one they lost was a bad one- their party leaders seat- but overall they were actually up across Scotland by 4% (though it appears in some constituencies where it was a tight marginal between SNP and Lib-dem, Unionist voters and Tory voters went for lib-dem to stop the SNP so its hard to say how much of that 4% was genuine affection for them).
But it cost the Lib-dems in england where they needed to win more seats but between them and the Brexit party they leached enough Labour voters ( Brexit party from Leave Labour voters, Lib-dems remain Labour voters) to further damage Labour who were already collapsing under their own weight.

As it turned out however Boris has what he wanted and set out to get- a working majority and all the dissenters cast from the party. Now he doesn't have to listen to the DUP or anyone else- he has a clear run at want he wants to do with no one to stop him, he can bring his Brexit bill back probably as soon as next week and it will pass clean through without a major hitch I should think.

And Labour are almost certainly about to plunge into months if not years of infighting over the direction of the party- its started already between those on the Corbyn side saying they and Corbyn should stay on long enough to set up who takes over, ensuring the party stays far-left as they claim Corbyns lefty policies were popular was just Brexit got in the way, and those who say no wasnt just Brexit was Corbyn/Momentums/unites left wing mainfesto that was also rejected.
In truth I think it was both.
But it will probably take Labour quite some time to sort itself out into being anything like a capable opposition- just at the time when the country needs a capable opposition.
Boris leading a majority Tory government is a grim enough prospect as is, him doing it without anyone to hold him to account is even worse though.}}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:35 pm

'We should bear in mind, and maybe [Tory Party chairman] James Cleverly might want to bear this in mind when he tries to use a similar argument about Scotland... that actually the proportion of the electorate that has voted for either the Conservatives or the Brexit Party, at 47%, is rather less than the percentage of the electorate that voted for parties that are in favour of a second referendum.
So the truth is, we should remember that the reason why the Conservatives have won is, in the end, this decision has been made via an electoral system that exaggerates leads, and in a situation where, as a result of that, the Remain vote was fragmented and the Leave vote was concentrated.
There's nothing in this election result that suggests any change of mood or attitude towards Brexit from what was the position three years ago.'- Sir John Curtice.

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Post by halfwise on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:38 pm

So how does your electoral system work? Do you have the same stupid winner-takes-all system that most of our states have instituted?

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:44 pm

{{ Yeah, for General elections its a straight forward first past the post system. There is no proportional representaion element. In this Westminster is at odds with the devolved parts of the UK all of whose's parliaments have at least some proportional element to the voting system (ironically in Scotland it was built in delibrately by the Labour government of the day at its inception in order to prevent he SNP from ever being able to get a majority and demand  a referendum on independence, that the SNP have more than once got a majority anyway under the proportional system is remarkable in itself really.}}

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Post by Mrs Figg on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:49 pm

Just a couple of thoughts, I think Swinson did it to herself making ridiculous grandiose statements, they should have had the solid and sensible Ed Davey he is far more likeable and wouldn't have built himself up for a fall.
second the SNP can now legitimately agitate for remaining in the EU and indiref2, you have a clear mandate and if Johnson tries to block it, it might go Catalonia.
The only small crumb of comfort was labour losing those traitorous reptiles John Mann and Caroline Flint.
I didn't even have the satisfaction of Chingford Mad and IDS.

The Labour party needs to jettison Corbyn as he has tainted their brand, and their loony-toon policies need the dustbin. I thing people were afraid of the extreme policies and went for the status quo. The pound is stronger today and the markets are doing well as a result of the Tory win. The Labour party should forget extreme Socialism and 4 day week, scrapping Eton and the like, people don't want stuff like that. they want to feel safe and Johnson looks the part, he looks safe and comfortable, and that's his magic touch, and that's why he won.

Its also good to know the brexit party got fuq all, and they will all be sent home from Brussels on 31st January. Farage is now a spent force and we will see the end of his poisonous reign.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:00 pm

{{ Yup Swinson had a terible campaign, and it was entirely her decision to take the party in the direction of nullyfing the referendum result if elected- that  was a big gamble that backfired massively.

Corbyn sadly is not going to go without a fight, and that goes double for the Unions backing him, I agree entirely with your assement Figg- but I fear it will take Labour a very long time to reach the same conclusion.

Boris just played a good game- he avoided anything which might expose him (like interviews with Andrew Neil) spent the eleciton out round the country meeting people and relying on his affable chummy routine to convince them he wasnt a threat, combined with smart advertising campaigns like a simple slogan- lets get it done- and effective political adverts like the love actually one, which again reinforced the Boris is not threatning line, look how loveable he is yet dedicated to doing the job? It worked a treat as part of a whole joined-up campaign that remained on message- same is true of Tory members standing, they were all on the same page going into the election, all behind Boris. Compare to Labour where Corbyn said he'd remain neutral and would not campaign either way whilst half his cabinet said they'd  campaign for remain and half for leave- comparably the message was muddy, confusing and lacked certainity. Add in all the worrying far-left student stuff, anti-seminitism claims from the Jewish Council, Corbyns terrorist backing past and real working people were turned away in droves.}}

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Post by halfwise on Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:26 pm

I didn't follow that. Are voting districts equal size and then the whole goes for whatever the majority is?

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ Yeah, for General elections its a straight forward first past the post system. There is no proportional representaion element. In this Westminster is at odds with the devolved parts of the UK all of whose's parliaments have at least some proportional element to the voting system (ironically in Scotland it was built in delibrately by the Labour government of the day at its inception in order to prevent he SNP from ever being able to get a majority and demand  a referendum on independence, that the SNP have more than once got a majority anyway under the proportional system is remarkable in itself really.}}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:27 pm

{{ When you look at the Scottish results its obvious how stark it is with the SNP dominating.

SNP 48
Con 6
LibDem 4
Labour 1

Something Sturgeon is not wasting time captilaising on.



I predict the SNP will put forward a demand for a right to hold another referendum, probably within a week or so- and Boris will refuse it outright.
Then it gets interesting! }}

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